1 | Outpatient COVID-19 Trials Data Last Updated April 19, 2023 | @DrToddLee | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | This table updates those included in the paper in OFID (2022) | |||||||
3 | ||||||||
4 | Changelog: | |||||||
5 | April 2023 - Updated several molnupravir studies to point to their final publications and added AGILE-CST-2 | |||||||
6 | October 2022 - Added PANORAMIC (molnupravir) and ACTIV-6 (fluvoxamine) | |||||||
7 | August 29, 2022 - Added unvaccinated patients from ACT Covid to colchicine | |||||||
8 | August 18, 2022 - Added Covid-Out fluvoxamine data; recalibrated risks from 2.5, 5 and 10% to 1, 2.5 and 5% to reflect modern risk | |||||||
9 | August 18, 2022 - Retired Sotrovimab, Casirivimab/imdevimab, and Bamlanivimab/etesevimab to the history books | |||||||
10 | July 21, 2022 - Updated EPIC-HR to all cause hospitalzation from Table 2 as per response to the | Letter to Editor | ||||||
11 | July 13, 2022 - Added ACTIV-6. Because admission rate was so low and data was not reported, did not stratify by vaccine stauts | |||||||
12 | June 14, 2022 - Added this changelog; added EPIC-SR results for unvaccinated patients from press release | |||||||
13 | A later update will separate trials by vaccine status | |||||||
14 | ||||||||
15 | Study | Drug | Estimated Cost (USD) | NNT @ 5% risk | Meta-Analysis / Single Result | Relative Risk | Weight | |
16 | Stop Covid 1 (JAMA 2020) | 0.18 (0.02-1.50) | 1.4% | |||||
17 | Stop Covid 2 (NIH Presentation) | 0.93 (0.42-2.06) | 9.8% | |||||
18 | Together (Lancet Global Health 2021)* | 0.75 (0.56-0.98) | 81.1% | |||||
19 | 1.01 (0.38-2.65) | 6.7% | ||||||
20 | 0.46 (0.04-5.01) | 1.1% | ||||||
21 | Fluvoxamine | $14.03 | 84 (49-667) | 0.76 (0.59-0.97);I²=0.0 Rand Eff: 0.76 (0.59-0.97) | ||||
22 | ||||||||
23 | Colcorona (Lancet 2020) | 0.77 (0.60-0.99) | 68.0% | |||||
24 | PRINCIPLE - 50% vaccinated | 1.28 (0.37-4.44) | 2.8% | |||||
25 | ACT Covid - Unvaccinated only | 0.86 (0.58-1.26) | 29.2% | |||||
26 | Colchicine** | $36.63 | 100 (58-2000) | 0.80 (0.65-0.99);I²=0.0 Rand Eff: 0.80 (0.65-0.99) | ||||
27 | ||||||||
28 | CONTAIN (BMJ 2021) | 1.87 (0.48-7.26) | 3.4% | |||||
29 | NCT04377711 (JAMA Int Med 2021) | 0.44 (0.12-1.68) | 3.6% | |||||
30 | PRINCIPLE (Lancet 2021) | 0.75 (0.56-0.99) | 76.7% | |||||
31 | STOIC (Lancet Resp 2021)*** | 0.18 (0.04-0.78) | 2.9% | |||||
32 | COVERAGE (CMI 2022) | 1.36 (0.63-2.93) | 10.8% | |||||
33 | ACTIV-6 (MedRxiv) | 1.06 (0.21-5.21) | 2.5% | |||||
34 | Inhaled Corticosteroid | $131.60 | 91 (52-20000) | 0.78 (0.61-1.00);I²=52.3 Rand Eff: 0.80 (0.47-1.36) | ||||
35 | ||||||||
36 | EPIC-HR NEJM (2022) | 0.24 (0.15-0.41) | 92.5% | |||||
37 | 0.65 (0.11-3.84) | 7.5% | ||||||
38 | Nirmatrelvir/ ritonavir | $530.00 | 28 (24-36) | 0.26 (0.16-0.43);I²=6.2 Rand Eff: 0.27 (0.15-0.48) | ||||
39 | ||||||||
40 | PINETREE (NEJM 2021) | Remdesivir | $1,872.00 | 28 (23-80) | 0.28 (0.11-0.75) | 0.28 (0.11-0.75) | ||
41 | ||||||||
42 | MOVE-OUT (NEJM 2021)* | 0.70 (0.49-0.99) | 32.4% | |||||
43 | Hetero (Cureus 2022) | 0.35 (0.16-0.73) | 7.2% | |||||
44 | 0.26 (0.03-2.25) | 0.9% | ||||||
45 | Autobindo (Preprint 2022) | 0.54 (0.22-1.34) | 4.9% | |||||
46 | 0.20 (0.01-4.20) | 0.4% | ||||||
47 | 1.13 (0.07-17.60) | 0.5% | ||||||
48 | 0.11 (0.01-2.03) | 0.5% | ||||||
49 | 1.07 (0.81-1.41) | 53.1% | ||||||
50 | Molnupiravir | $700.00 | 100 (59-1000) | 0.80 (0.66-0.98);I²=57.1 Rand Eff: 0.62 (0.40-0.96) | ||||
51 | ||||||||
52 | TOGETHER (Unpublished) | 0.60 (0.36-1.00) | 90.4% | |||||
53 | NCT04354259 (Lancet Resp Med 2021) | 1.00 (0.07-15.26) | 3.2% | |||||
54 | NCT04331899 (Nat Comm 2021) | 1.00 (0.15-6.87) | 6.4% | |||||
55 | Interferon Lambda | 50 (32-2000) | 0.63 (0.39-1.03);I²=0.0 Rand Eff: 0.63 (0.39-1.03) | |||||
62 | Prices based on GoodRx estimates or publicized US government contracts | |||||||
63 | *Hospitalization or ER visit lasting >=24 hours | |||||||
64 | ** PRINCIPLE includes concurrent control group only; Note 50% vaccinated in PRINCIPLE | |||||||
65 | *** Did not deliniate urgent care visits from hospitalization | |||||||
66 | **** All-cause hospitalization not available; COVID-19 hospitalization used (and may over-estimate efficacy). EPIC-SR includes vaccinated high-risk patients | |||||||
67 | ***** Subgroup with 800mg dose and <=5 days symptoms (OFID paper used <=5 days AND 1 risk factor, but have been more broad here) | |||||||
68 | ****** 800mg dose of molnupiravir only | |||||||
69 | Missing a study, link or study out of date? Message me on twitter and I'll update. | |||||||
70 | ||||||||
71 | ||||||||
72 | Drug | NNT @ 1% | NNT @ 2.5% | Cost/Hosp. Prevented (1%) | Cost/Hosp. Prevented (2.5%) | Cost/Hosp. Prevented (5%) | ||
73 | Fluvoxamine (Meta-Analysis) | 417 (244-3334) | 167 (98-1334) | 5848 (3422-46759) | 2342 (1374-18709) | 1178 (687-9355) | 2,342.00 | |
74 | Colchicine (Meta-Analysis) | 455 (257-100000) | 182 (103-40000) | 16667 (9414-3663000) | 6667 (3773-1465200) | 3333 (1905-732600) | 6,667.00 | |
75 | Inhaled corticosteroids (Meta-Analysis)* | 455 (257-100000) | 182 (103-40000) | 59878 (33821-13160000) | 23951 (13555-5264000) | 11976 (6843-2632000) | 23,951.00 | |
76 | Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Meta-Analysis)** | 136 (120-176) | 55 (48-71) | 72080 (63600-93280) | 29150 (25440-37630) | 14840 (12720-19080) | 29,150.00 | |
77 | Remdesivir (Phase 3) | 139 (113-400) | 56 (45-160) | 260208 (211536-748800) | 104832 (84240-299520) | 52416 (43056-149760) | 104,832.00 | |
81 | Molnupiravir (Meta-Analysis) | 527 (295-10000) | 211 (118-4000) | 368900 (206500-7000000) | 147700 (82600-2800000) | 74200 (41300-1400000) | 14770000.0% | |
82 | *Fixed effects model ignoring heterogeneity; budesonide trials were open label as was the Hetero pharma molnupiriavir trial | |||||||
83 | **All cause hospitalization not provided, only COVID-19 related | |||||||
84 | Monoclonal antibody and remdesivir costs do not include price of administration. |